Around 2018 American whiskey, specifically Kentucky bourbon, was thriving. Sales were on the rise and in response brands ramped up production to lay down as much stock as possible. This practice intensified during the pandemic when consumers used their spare cash to trade up, but a subsequent cost of living crisis, inflation and tariff wars have flipped the narrative. Suddenly there’s too much whiskey, not enough people drinking it, and nowhere to ship it to.
Of the nine American whiskey brands which sell more than one million cases a year, only Bulleit showed growth in 2025 with the remaining either level or in the red. Jack Daniel’s, the biggest American whiskey on the market, lost more than a million cases in a year to 2025.
Brands are now desperately slowing output – Suntory Global Spirits paused production at one of its Jim Beam facilities in Kentucky in January – while there’s simultaneously a record number of barrels of bourbon ageing in the Bluegrass State (more than 16 million as of 1 January 2025).
The Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS) economist Hasan Bakir told Robb Report: “The continued decline in production is likely a strategic adjustment to elevated American whiskey inventories coupled with tariff concerns impacting exports and a slowing US market.”
DISCUS figures also state that American whiskey exports fell by 19% in 2025 as a result of retaliatory tariffs to the Trump administration. Among the top export markets, the EU was down 35% (offset by the frontloading in 2024), Japan was 28% down and Canada continues to actively boycott American products. Brown-Forman alone reportedly lost 61% in organic sales across the border in 2025.
“Exports remain a critical path forward, especially amid a slowdown in domestic sales and high inventory levels,” said DISCUS president & chief executive Chris Swonger in the council’s 2025 American Spirits Exports Report. “Stable, tariff-free trade and expanding market access abroad are essential to ensuring continued growth for the US spirits sector.”
SIGNS OF GROWTH
However, there are still brands finding positivity among the gloom. Michter’s, which has been ranked the number one World’s Most Admired Whiskey Brand for three consecutive years, is showing signs of growth.
“We’re continuing to distil and produce whiskey,” says executive vice president Matt Magliocco. “We’re not dismissing the challenges facing the industry right now, they’re very real, but we’re remaining positive. We’ve seen growth in the most recent fiscal year and calendar year and we continue to see a lot of opportunities.
“Canada has traditionally been a huge market for American whiskey, but we’ve only been able to trade in two provinces for over a year now. The UAE was also a strong growth market which is suddenly halted, while we’ve lost a lot of trade in Russia and eastern Europe due to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. But, while we’re losing out in those places, we’ve just launched in Brazil which is an exciting market to infiltrate.”
Domestically the troubles are also mounting. According to DISCUS data, US sales of American whiskeys fell 1.8% in 2024 to total $5.2bn in revenue and a combination of moderation and penny pinching are the primary culprits.
Magliocco adds: “There’s still a significant portion of the US that doesn’t know Michter’s so there are opportunities for us regardless of the situation. We still get excited about introducing the brand to great bartenders and retailers across the country.”
Despite a worrying horizon, new distilleries continue to open. In the Hudson Valley, Silver Brothers Distillery has just launched three-year-old Empire rye whiskey with plans for an American single malt this July.
“We are focused on two categories that are growing in the market – Empire rye and American single malt – and are priced in a range that has been pretty resilient in this market,” says Matthew Greitzer, co-founder of Silver Brothers Distillery.
“With a limited production, we are focused on building a direct-to[1]consumer following through our tasting room while self-distributing in New York. We are also fortunate to be in the Hudson Valley with New York City at our doorstep, where the focus on provenance and knowing your maker is increasingly sought out.”
The emerging styles of American whiskey outside Kentucky are largely sheltered from the wider world as domestic sales are the priority. The fact that new distilleries are opening in these regions suggests consumer curiosity is still very much alive – unlike the ‘gin bubble’ in Europe which burst under the weight of fatigue.
American whiskey, specifically bourbon, is clearly having a tough time. Evidence shows the category has lost a lot of ground in the past couple of years and it could be argued that major players were naive to lay down extra stocks during the pandemic. Context, however, is important. Producers did this off the back of record sales and, even after the subsequent hefty declines, they’re basically back at the same levels as 2018, which is considered by many to be the golden period for bourbon.
Spirits sales always ebb and flow, riding the waves of economic and geopolitical turbulence. The real question is, how long will this low tide last? It could be just a couple of years until Trump leaves office, or it could be longer should the MAGA movement survive the Iranian conflict. In the meantime, ‘big bourbon’ needs to sit tight, work hard to establish new markets and wait for the economy to return. And when it does, brands may have an inventory of aged stocks, something it was desperate to achieve prior to the pandemic.
