Diageo provides strong medium-term guidance

16 November, 2021

Diageo’s share price increased this morning after the company revealed that it expects to enjoy organic net sales growth of at least 16% in the six months to December 31, 2021.

The Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff and Guinness producer is currently hosting its capital markets day in London.

It said it expects strong organic net sales growth of at least 16% in the first half of fiscal 22, which began on July 1, and organic operating profit growth ahead of organic net sales growth.

On a medium-term basis it expects sales growth in the range of 5% to 7% and organic operating profit growth of 6% to 9% between fiscal 2023 and 2025. 

It held a 4% share of the total global alcohol sales in 2020, but it aims to increase that to 6% by 2030.

The firm’s share price increased by 3% after it revealed the news.

Chief executive Ivan Menezes said: “Since our last Capital Markets Day, we have continued to invest in our brands, sharpened our focus on accelerating growth and quickly responded to shifts in consumer behaviour. We have also launched ‘Society 2030: Spirit of Progress’, our ten-year sustainability action plan, building on our strong track record of doing business the right way, from grain to glass.

“Our culture of everyday efficiency is embedded in our business, and we continue to challenge ourselves to achieve more. In fiscal 21, despite the challenges created by Covid-19, we delivered strong organic net sales growth, drove an improvement in organic operating margin and delivered strong cash flows, while continuing to invest in long-term sustainable growth.

“We believe our sales growth trajectory has accelerated, underpinned by the strength of our advantaged position across geographies, categories and price tiers. TBA is a large, growing and attractive sector of which Diageo currently has a 4% value share. With continued investment in marketing, digital capabilities and our people, we have significant headroom for growth. This gives us the confidence that we can grow Diageo’s value share of TBA from 4% in 2020,1 to 6% by 2030.”

The company recently announced the resumption of its share buyback scheme. Shareholders can expect £1 billion of payments by the end of the 2022 financial year, with £500 million in share buybacks to be completed this month.

Lavanya Chandrashekar, chief financial officer, added: “Our focus on everyday efficiency enables us to continue to increase investment in our brands and strategic growth initiatives, while underpinning organic operating margin improvement.

“This self-sustaining growth model gives us confidence that we can accelerate our organic net sales growth within a range of 5% to 7% for fiscal 23 to fiscal 25.

“This compares to growth of 4% to 6% in fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2019. While we expect inflationary pressures to increase, we also expect to benefit from operating leverage, premiumisation, revenue growth management and productivity gains. As a result, we expect organic operating profit to grow sustainably in a range of 6% to 9% for fiscal 23 to fiscal 25. 

“As we announced in our AGM statement, we have made a strong start to fiscal 22. We are delivering organic net sales growth across all regions, as we benefit from resilience in the off-trade and continued recovery in the on-trade.

“This is benefitting organic operating margin, despite rising inflationary pressures, which are partly due to supply chain constraints. We expect organic net sales growth of at least 16% in the first half of fiscal 22 and organic operating profit growth ahead of organic net sales growth. We expect the strong growth momentum in the first half of fiscal 22 to continue through the remainder of the fiscal year. However, in the second half of fiscal 22 we will be lapping a tougher comparator.”

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