IWSR research commissioned by the organisers of Vinexpo, has revealed the that the Asia Pacific region is predicted to grow by 51.7 million 9-litre cases of spirits and 35.7m cases of still and sparkling wine by 2020.
The Americas, which comprises to relatively mature markets of the US and Canada, will grow by 6.04m cases of spirits and 23.8m cases of wine. Africa and the Middle East are also in plus figures with +7.12m for spirits and +15.7m for wine.
On the minus side come Europe with -0.13m for spirits and a significant -33.9 cases of wine. The CIS is -22.17m for spirits, predominately vodka, but +10.7m cases for wine.
Nevertheless, Europe keeps the highest market share and remains the highest consuming market per capita. To put things in perspective, in terms of per capita (citizens of legal drinking age) consumption of wine, France leads with 47.19, predicted to drop by -7.5% to 33.63 by 2020. China drinks just 1.34 litres per head and that is predicted to rise 17% to 1.53. The US accounts for a modest 13 litres per head and that is said to rise 1.2% to 13.16.
The largest spirits markets by volume are China (+3% to 2020), India (+8.6%), the US (+4.1%), Russia (-7.8%) and South Korea (-2.9%).
In terms of spirits categories by volume, national spirits such as China’s baijiu, Japan’s shōchū and Korean’s soju, is number one with 1,475m 9-litre cases (+1.7% by 2020). Followed by bourbon (+13.9%), tequila (+11.9%), cognac/armagnac (+10.8%), scotch (+10.4%), gin/genever (+1.6%), liqueurs (-1.1%), rum (-2,1%), other brandy (-7.2% and vodka (-4.3%).
Overall, the headlines for spirits are: Asia dominates, whisk(e)y, gin and tequila are growing but the decline of vodka is predicted to accelerate.
On the wine side, the major growth regions are: Asia (16.6% to 2020), followed by North America (+4.5%), Africa (+14.6%), the CIS (+8.7%) and central Europe and the Balkans (+2%).
The top imported wine growth markets by volume are: China (+79.3% to 2020), the US (+4.8%), Russia (+15.7%), Canada (+7.4%) and Japan (+7.7%).
In terms of retail value, still and sparking wines by value, the US is valued at $34.5m (to increase by +11.9% to 2020), the UK ($18.8m, +2.5%), France (16.3m, -1.9%), China ($15.5m, +39.8%), Italy ($12.2m, -1.8%) and Germany (12.2m, +1%).
The top wine consuming countries are: the US (+4.9% increase by 2020), France (-5.8%), Germany (-1.25%), Italy (-7.8%), China, including Hong Kong ((+19.5%) and the UK (+0.4%).
The top imported wine markets are: Germany (-0.4% to 2020), UK (-1.6%), US (+4.6%), China (+79%) and the Netherlands ((-1.4%).
the IWSR/Vinexpo research pinpoint emerging wine markets to watch as: India, China, Mexico, South Africa, Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, Russia, Malaysia and Vietnam.
France continues to be the leading exporter of wine by value with $18.4m, followed by Italy and Spain. But the fastest-growing exporters are: New Zealand (+28.8%), Chile (+27.7%) and Spain (+21.7%).
The research predicts consumption of rosé wine is set to continue growing and Italian prosecco is driving the growth in sparkling wines