1. Premiumisation
As the world enters a period of growing economic fragility, those with financial stability – typically consumers with lower levels of debt and secure employment – will provide increasing opportunities for premium-and-above spirits and wine brand owners.
This is a notable shift from the situation during the Covid-19 pandemic, when Millennials led the global consumption bounce-back in 2021 in key markets such as the US, the UK, France, Germany and Brazil.
This phenomenon was driven by their higher levels of disposable income and embracing of more sophisticated home consumption occasions – but this trend is now likely to be reversed by economic instability, leaving younger consumers of legal drinking age with less-secure finances and employment prospects in the years ahead.
In China, for example, IWSR consumer data shows that there has been a shift in the alcohol drinking population, with fewer 18−24s, possibly connected to 20% unemployment among graduates.
2. China’s risk profile grows
The US spirits market is forecast to add the most value of any individual market over the next five years, led by the continued boom in premium tequila, bringing it almost level with China.
A proposed government cut-down on conspicuous drinking, falling consumption rates among younger demographics and lower GDP expectations could dampen China’s spirits market. However, China has not yet experienced a proper post-Covid boom. When it does take place, it could help balance sales in the short term.
India, meanwhile, is poised to make strong spirits gains thanks to its booming economy with rising consumer incomes, market recovery and growth post-pandemic and strong consumer confidence.
3. Pockets of growth for beer
The most promising growth opportunities for beer in the coming years will be in India, Latin America, and Africa. According to its data, IWSR expects global volumes to rise at a CAGR of 1% between 2021 and 2026, driven by Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Colombia and India. Beer is also well-positioned to grow in a number of Southeast Asian markets.
In Brazil, growth has been driven by investments in the on-trade and ecommerce. In line with this trend, Brazil’s on-trade will contribute the highest volumes to the beer category across the top 20 beverage alcohol volume markets by 2026.
4. Sparkling wines shine
The total wine category is in volume decline, in line with historical trends. However, prosecco and champagne continue to grow.
A backlog of celebrations following the Covid-19 pandemic has helped to accelerate growth of sparkling wine in many markets. A change of attitude is also a key driver, with the drink moving away from just special occasions to ones that can be enjoyed in more relaxed settings and more frequently.
5. Premiumisation carries RTDs
IWSR data shows that global RTD value will rise at a CAGR of 7% between 2022 and 2026, and the shift to premium products ends a period of dramatic volume growth for the category, particularly hard seltzers in the US.
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Premium-priced RTDs have grown faster than any other segment over the past two years, albeit on a smaller volume base, with new products increasingly launching at higher prices. This is driven by an increase in spirit-based offerings, higher abvs and well-known premium brand extensions.
6. Ecommerce growth moderates
Pandemic lockdowns drove rapid alcohol ecommerce growth due to a loosening of regulations and a boosted ecommerce infrastructure in many markets. As a result, alcohol ecommerce value grew by over 40% in 2020 alone.
Over the coming years, these growth rates are set to moderate as the market enters a period of post-pandemic normalisation. However, the overall trajectory remains upward, with alcohol ecommerce expected to contribute an additional $10bn+ to the beverage alcohol sector between 2021 and 2026.
According to the report wine, the most established category online, will see its share of ecommerce sales slip slightly over the coming years to beer, spirits and RTDs.
7. Home consumption to keep increasing
Growing economic concerns are set to make the at-home occasion even more significant in the future, as shrinking disposable incomes force many people to cut back on visits to bars and restaurants.
The projected gains follow a period of reinvention for the home-premise occasion, which grew increasingly sophisticated during Covid-19 lockdowns with the rise of home delivery platforms, TV streaming services, and consumer interest in mixology and at-home entertainment.
8. Moderation on the rise
Previously driven mostly by health and wellness concerns, moderation in alcohol consumption is now increasingly being spurred by economic worries and a need to cut household spending. However, consumers are choosing to cut down rather than down-trade in many markets.
About half of all adult drinkers surveyed as part of IWSR’s price sensitivity study across 17 focus markets in H2 2022, expressed interest in moderating their alcohol consumption. The trend is particularly strong in European markets where economic confidence is low, such as the UK and Germany.
The long-established trend of moderation as a health and wellness choice also continues, especially among those on higher incomes in countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, and China. Germany remains the largest market for low and no-alcohol products, however smaller markets, such as the US, Canada and Australia, will show more dynamic growth, with volume CAGRs 2022-2026 outpacing that of Germany.
