The research by IWSR, was commissioned by Vinexpo by way of promoting its forthcoming exhibitions in Hong Kong (May 24-26 and its boutique show in Tokyo (November 15/16).
Vinexpo CEO Guillaume Deglise (pictured), speaking to journalists in London today (February 9), said the global wine market between 2013 and 2014 slowed by 1.5% to 2.6 billion 9-litre cases but the study forecasts global wine consumption to grow by 1.4% between 2015 and 2019. Sparkling wines, which account for 8% of the total, is forecast to rise by 7.4%. Rosé which accounts for 9% of all still wines, are set to grow by 2.2% to 2019 and premium still light wines will rise by 12% in the same period.
Global volumes for spirits reached 3.07bn cases in 2015. From 2010 to 2014, growth had been 8.6%. The IWSR research predicts +2.8% volume growth to end of 2019.
Deglise commented that spirits is “very difficult” due to the number of local brands from the likes of the Philippines, India and China, which command huge volumes but are not available outside of their domestic markets. He said Baiju accounted for a third of all spirits consumed in the world and the largest producer of gin came from the Philippines.
The five fastest-growing spirits markets in 2014, compared to 2013 by volume (excluding national spirits) were: China, adding 10m cases to reach 1.19bn cases; US, adding 2.8m (207m cases); India, +1.5m cases (312m cases); Angola, +1.1m cases (5.1m cases and Kenya, +0.6m (2.6m cases).
Vodka has declined every year since 2010. Cognac and Armagnac have recovered after the Chinese clampdown, rising 0.7% to 12.7m cases, thanks to a buoyant US market. Rum volumes are down 2.7% in 2014 but volumes of premium and super premium rums, topped 6.5m cases for the first time.
Deglise said the boom in Prosecco is set to continue. The growth in sparkling wine globally is forecast to add almost 20m cases over the next five years. Asked whether he thought the Chinese would develop a liking of white wine, Deglise said: “Red is the colour of health and luck while white is the colour of death in China. Red (wine) is so dominant so maybe in the longer term. Maybe white will be helped by sparkling wine - in the big cities and clubs,” he speculated.