In an article by the research firm, senior alcoholic drinks analyst Jeremy Cunnington said emerging markets (Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa) will see volumes increase again this year while developed regions (Western Europe, North America and Australasia) will witness decline.
In the case of Asia Pacific and the Middle East and Africa, Cunnington forecasted volume growth will exceed 5%.
Cunnington said there was a continued trend towards ‘premiumisation’ in emerging markets, helping to drive value increases, and that beer will be the key growth category.
He said: “In all the emerging market regions, with the exception of the Middle East and Africa, premium lager will outperform the standard and economy segments, albeit from smaller bases.
“In contrast, all three developed market regions will see volumes decline, primarily due to the maturity of beer in these regions.
“However, these regions do offer opportunities for growth elsewhere in the industry. Wine, spirits and cider are all expected to do well in North America, while in Western Europe cider/perry and certain spirits categories such as vodka and rum will continue to grow.”
Cunnington added that products geared towards home drinking, such as RTDs, will continue to grow in developed markets and that value increase would be seen in the form of craft beer in North America and Western Europe and in the super-premium gin category in Spain.